Confidence interval from raster data

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I have raster data that represents a probability distribution, i.e. each cell has a probability value (in my case the probability that an animal may be found in the cell), and all the cells add up to 100% (I know for certain the animal is within the extents of my raster). I want to be able to generate vector data for confidence values. For example, the 95% line/polygon denotes the boundary wherein I am 95% confident that I will find the animal.

Similarly, if I have a kernel density estimate, How do I generate the XX% line/polygon that borders the densest part of the raster containing XX% of the total population?

I am willing to use ArcGIS, or open-source software. If there isn't a tool to perform this for me, what is an algorithm I can implement?



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